Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms last hurricane season (2010). (Credit: NOAA)
June 1st marks the beginning of the Atlantic basin hurricane season and NOAA’s hurricane outlook predicts a 65% above normal hurricane season.
• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
This is compared to the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Keep in mind this does not predict how many tropical cyclones will make landfall, but merely how many tropical cyclones we can expect.
In the Eastern and Central Pacific
May 15th marked the start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season and unlike the Atlantic hurricane season, the Pacific is forecasted to have a 70% probability of being “below normal”.
Be Prepared
May 22nd through May 28th is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/prepared_week.shtml
Hurricane Basics by NOAA
The ingredients for a hurricane include a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds aloft. If the right conditions persist long enough, they can combine to produce the violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains, and floods we associate with this phenomenon.
Each year, an average of eleven tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Many of these remain over the ocean and never impact the U.S. coastline. Six of these storms become hurricanes each year. In an average 3-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the US coastline, killing approximately 50 to 100 people anywhere from Texas to Maine. Of these, two are typically “major” or “intense” hurricanes (a category 3 or higher storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).
What is a Hurricane?
A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth’s surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:
Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 kt) or less.
Tropical Storm
An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Hurricane
An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher
Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. A Category 1 storm has the lowest wind speeds, while a Category 5 hurricane has the strongest. These are relative terms, because lower category storms can sometimes inflict greater damage than higher category storms, depending on where they strike and the particular hazards they bring. In fact, tropical storms can also produce significant damage and loss of life, mainly due to flooding.
Watches vs. Warnings
A HURRICANE WATCH issued for your part of the coast indicates the possibility that you could experience hurricane conditions within 48 hours.
This watch should trigger your family or business’s disaster plan, and protective measures should be initiated, especially those actions that require extra time such as securing a boat, leaving a barrier island, etc.
A HURRICANE WARNING issued for your part of the coast indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 36 hours or less.
Once this warning has been issued, your family or business should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.
About The Swinden Group
The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.
Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.
Stay Safe,
The Swinden Group, LLC
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